Over the next ten years, growth in global demand for agricultural and food products will be concentrated mainly in low- and middle-income countries, while the geography of international trade flows is also expected to shift. According to the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026-2035, India and Southeast Asia will play a particularly important role in driving consumption growth, while other regions will become increasingly reliant on imports.
For producers, importers and international distributors, these projections provide useful insights into where demand could grow most strongly and which markets are likely to have an increasing need for imported supplies. These two trends, however, do not necessarily move together and may require different strategies.
India and Southeast Asia lead consumption growth
According to OECD-FAO projections, India and Southeast Asian countries will account for around 39% of global consumption growth by 2035, up from 32% in the previous decade.
Population growth, rising incomes and urbanization are driving this trend. The composition of demand is also changing: as living standards improve, diets tend to become more diverse, with animal-based foods and fish products gaining a larger share relative to staple foods.
Meanwhile, China's contribution to global consumption growth is expected to decline to 13%, partly reflecting more mature per capita demand and a gradually shrinking population.
New dynamics in Asian food trade
Rising demand is also reshaping trade patterns. The Outlook shows that South and Southeast Asia have shifted from net exporters to net importers, a change linked to growing food demand in markets including India, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, alongside declining regional palm oil exports.
This trend does not mean that every country or product category is moving in the same direction. It does, however, point to a broader shift in the balance between production, consumption and trade across the region.
Globally, the share of agricultural production traded internationally has risen from 16% in 2000 to around 22-23% today and is expected to remain broadly stable over the next decade. The main change will be in the geographic distribution of production surpluses and supply needs across different regions.
Middle East and North Africa increasingly dependent on imports
A different pattern is emerging in the Middle East and North Africa. Population growth is combining with structural constraints on domestic production capacity, increasing the importance of international sourcing.
By 2035, imports are expected to cover around 72% of consumption of the agricultural commodities included in the Outlook, measured in calorie equivalents. Over the next decade, the region's net imports of basic food commodities are also projected to increase by 34%.
These figures confirm the central role of international trade in meeting the region's food needs. For local importers and distributors, securing supply, diversifying sourcing and maintaining logistics continuity will therefore remain important in category management.
Demand growth and import dependence send different signals
For companies involved in international trade, the Outlook highlights an important distinction: consumption growth and increasing reliance on imported supplies do not necessarily move at the same pace.
This distinction matters when assessing export markets. Strong consumption growth does not automatically translate into an equivalent increase in imports, as part of that demand may be met by domestic production. Similarly, a high level of import dependence does not mean that every product category or price segment offers the same market potential.
International trade remains essential, but exposure to risk is increasing
According to the OECD and FAO, international trade will continue to play a key role in connecting regions with production surpluses to those where domestic supply is insufficient to meet consumption needs.
Greater reliance on imports, however, also increases exposure to exchange rate fluctuations, foreign currency availability, weather events in major exporting countries and changes in trade policies. Supply disruptions in major producing markets can therefore have a faster impact on regions that depend more heavily on international sourcing.
How to interpret the projections through 2035
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook presents a baseline scenario rather than a certain forecast. Its projections are based on assumptions about economic trends, productivity, weather conditions, consumer preferences, and agricultural and trade policies.
It is also important to consider the scope of the analysis. The Outlook covers the main agricultural commodities and fish products and should therefore not be interpreted as a detailed forecast for processed or packaged food markets. Instead, the data provide a view of the structural trends that could shape production, consumption and international trade over the coming years.
