In the first four months of 2026, EU agri-food trade showed an interesting signal: the surplus remained positive and increased slightly compared with the same period of the previous year, despite a slowdown in exports. According to the European Commission, between January and April 2026 the EU agri-food trade balance reached 15.6 billion euro, up 233 million euro compared with 2025.
However, the figure needs to be read carefully. The increase in the surplus was not driven by stronger exports, which fell by 3% over the same period to 77.6 billion euro. The positive balance was supported mainly by a reduction in imports, which decreased by 7% to 62 billion euro. The result points to a market that remains solid, but is shaped by more complex dynamics.
A positive surplus, but signs of slowdown remain
The first point to highlight is that the European agri-food sector continues to hold a strong position in international markets. In 2025, the EU reached a new record for agri-food exports, at 238.4 billion euro, confirming its role as one of the leading global players in the sector.
In 2026, however, the picture is more selective. The decline in exports in the first four months points to a phase of adjustment after years marked by high prices, logistics pressures and strong volatility in raw materials. The surplus remains substantial, but its growth reflects a rebalancing of trade flows rather than a broad increase in foreign sales.
The role of prices: lower imports and commodity correction
A significant part of this trend is linked to the prices of agricultural and food ingredients. In 2025, higher import costs, particularly for categories such as coffee, cocoa, tea, spices, dried fruit and nuts, had reduced the EU trade surplus despite the record value of exports.
In the first months of 2026, the situation partly changed. Imports of coffee, tea, cocoa and spices decreased by 1.6 billion euro, a drop of 12%. The European Commission links this reduction mainly to lower import values for cocoa from countries such as Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Cameroon and Guinea.
This is an important point because it shows that the EU agri-food trade balance is influenced not only by traded volumes, but also by international price trends. For food companies, 2026 is therefore a year in which raw material cost management remains a decisive variable.
Destination markets
The United Kingdom remains the leading destination market for EU agri-food exports, although it recorded a 2% decline, equal to 454 million euro less than in the same period of 2025. The figure confirms the strategic importance of the UK market, but also the need for EU companies to continue diversifying their commercial channels.
The contraction was more pronounced for the United Arab Emirates, where EU exports decreased by 25%, corresponding to 266 million euro. According to the European Commission, trade with Gulf countries was affected mainly by logistical and geopolitical factors, including difficulties linked to the Strait of Hormuz.
By contrast, exports to Egypt increased by 302 million euro, up 49%, driven mainly by wheat. Ukraine also recorded higher imports of agri-food products from the EU, with an increase of 104 million euro, or 7%.
Not all segments are moving in the same direction
The export slowdown does not affect all categories in the same way. According to the European Commission, the overall decline is mainly linked to lower export values for cocoa-based products and pork. This suggests a correction in segments that in recent years had been strongly affected by high prices, variable international demand and supply chain tensions.
On the import side, in addition to the decrease in products linked to cocoa, coffee, tea and spices, there were also declines from the United States and Ukraine, respectively due to lower purchases of soybeans and wheat. By contrast, imports from Vietnam increased, supported by higher coffee volumes, while some categories also grew, including fresh fruit and nuts, beef and veal, margarines, oils and fats.
Competitiveness and adaptation to changing conditions
For export-oriented companies, the European data suggests a cautious but not negative reading. International markets remain open and European food products retain a strong position, especially in higher added-value segments. However, growth is no longer uniform and requires more targeted strategies.
At this stage, competitiveness depends not only on the ability to export, but also on market selection, price management, supply stability and the ability to adapt to logistical and commercial changes. For international distributors, the picture confirms the importance of monitoring not only final demand, but also raw material costs, trade routes and the evolution of flows between geographical areas.
Companies in the sector may find opportunities especially in markets where quality, origin, specialization and supply reliability remain distinctive factors. In a less predictable environment than in previous years, the value of agri-food products can become even more relevant when supported by clear communication tailored to the target geography, as well as by the ability to develop diversified international channels.
